Tobias Axelsson

Sub-Saharan Africa’s development challenge lies less in achieving than in sustaining growth. While many
countries experience rapid expansion, frequent episodes of economic shrinking undermine long-term
development. Drawing on the social capabilities framework and the role of monetary governance in
development, we examine how central bank autonomy and accountability relate to shrinking dynamics.
Through a comparative-historical analysis of Kenya and Tanzania (1960–2016), we show that shifts in
central bank autonomy align with each country’s pattern of shrinking and inflation. Our analysis of these
patterns suggests that central bank governance both reflects broader institutional conditions and plays a
role in sustained development.