Tommy Bengtsson

This study investigates the long-term social consequences of early-life exposure to adverse
conditions in nineteenth-century Poznań. Using linked individual-level records from the
Poznań Historical Population Database for birth cohorts 1830–1855, we examine how
prenatal stress, infant mortality, early-childhood disease burden, and fluctuations in rye prices
influenced the likelihood of marriage and intergenerational social mobility at first marriage,
up to age 45. Logistic regression models indicate that adverse prenatal conditions, proxied by
a low sex ratio at birth, and high rye price in the first year of life significantly decreased the
probability of entering marriage. Unexpectedly, high rye prices during gestation were
associated with a higher likelihood of marriage, suggesting that more resilient individuals may
have been more likely to survive. Analyses of social mobility at first marriage show limited
overall changes in status, consistent with positive selection into marriage, although
individuals exposed to disease in early childhood were less likely to experience downward
mobility. These findings highlight the complex interplay of scarring and selection
mechanisms through which early-life adversity shaped demographic and socioeconomic
outcomes. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of family formation and social
stratification in urban Europe