EKH Makromackan seminarium - Nicolò Badino

Denna gång kommer Nicolo Badinò vid University of Genova, och gästdoktorand vid  EKH, att presentera ett nyligen igångsatt arbete, och kommentarer välkomnas tacksamt: 

Climate change and the end of the Malthusian trap: A new theory

Nicolò Badino webpage (nbadino.com)

Abstrakt:

We propose a novel theory explaining the end of the Malthusian era as a consequence
of agricultural stress during the Little Ice Age. As declining temperatures reduced per
capita agricultural output, populations were compelled to innovate in order to sus-
tain minimum caloric consumption. These innovations, initially aimed at mitigating
climate-induced productivity losses, laid the foundation for long-term technological
advancement. When temperatures began to rise again, returning to pre-glacial levels,
agricultural output surged to unprecedented levels, triggering the Agricultural Revo-
lution and ultimately leading to the escape from the Malthusian trap.
We formalize this mechanism within a simple Malthusian framework and character-
ize its long-run equilibrium. Our theory suggests that this climate-induced innovation
dynamic could only occur in regions where average temperatures were close—but not
too close—to the subsistence threshold, and where climatic shocks were slow enough
to induce adaptation without causing collapse.

Välkomna!