Lars Jonung
Professor emeritus
Improving fiscal policy in the EU : The case for independent forecasts
Författare
Summary, in English
We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes.
Publiceringsår
2006-08-04
Språk
Engelska
Sidor
492-534
Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie
Economic Policy
Volym
21
Issue
47
Länkar
Dokumenttyp
Artikel i tidskrift
Förlag
Oxford University Press
Ämne
- Economics
Status
Published