Joakim Westerlund

Professor, Programchef - Magisterprogram i Dataanalys och ekonomi

Are Islamic Stock Returns Predictable? A Global Perspective

Författare

Joakim Westerlund
Paresh Narayan
Susan Sharma
Dinh Phan

Summary, in English

Using the sharia-compliant measures, we compile a data set that spans January 1981 to December 2014 and contains 2577 Islamic stocks. Using as many as 12 financial and macroeconomic predictors, we discover strong evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample return predictability. There is robust evidence of predictability only when U.S. stock returns are used as a predictor. We find that investing in regional (industry) portfolios offers on average, across the 12 predictors, meaningful profits of 6.16% (6.03%) per annum. Investing in a portfolio of Islamic stocks belonging to emerging markets (9.89% per annum) and a portfolio of Islamic stocks belonging to the consumer goods sector (6.37% per annum) offers the most returns amongst regions and industries, respectively.

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