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Ulf Gerdtham. Foto.

Ulf Gerdtham

Professor

Ulf Gerdtham. Foto.

HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? : Evidence from panel-data for African countries

Författare

  • Amiri Arshia
  • Ulf Gerdtham
  • Bruno Ventelou

Summary, in English

To test potential bilateral causalities relation between HIV-AIDS mortality and GDP, we propose a simple Granger noncausality test for heterogeneous panel data models. 44 African countries are selected for annual pooled data from 1990 to 2009. Results are presented for the heterogeneous noncausality hypothesis (HENC), which tests, for each cross-section unit, the nullity of all the coefficients of the lagged explanatory variable. Bilateral causality relation is observed for 5 countries out of 44 (11% of the countries in our data set). We have 18 countries of unidirectional causality, which 14 are from HIV mortality rate to GDP (43% from total), and 4 are from GDP to HIV mortality rate (9% from total). These results alert for the risk of epidemic trap, initiated first by the deleterious effect of HIV-Aids on countries income.

Avdelning/ar

  • Nationalekonomiska institutionen
  • Hälsoekonomi
  • Centrum för ekonomisk demografi
  • EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health

Publiceringsår

2012-03-29

Språk

Engelska

Sidor

1060-1067

Publikation/Tidskrift/Serie

Economics Bulletin

Volym

32

Issue

1

Dokumenttyp

Artikel i tidskrift

Förlag

Economics Bulletin

Ämne

  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology

Nyckelord

  • HIV-AIDS
  • GDP
  • Granger test
  • non-causality test
  • African countries

Status

Published

Forskningsgrupp

  • Health Economics

ISBN/ISSN/Övrigt

  • ISSN: 1545-2921